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Will Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF fall more than 5% over the next year? · Probs

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

BND

Will Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF fall more than 5% over the next year?

Consensus

22%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

4 forecastsCloses 2 Sept 2026, 21:09Resolves 19 Jul 2027, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF at 22%, based on 4 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF is down more than 5% 12 months out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 22%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 35d 9h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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