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Will Bitcoin fall more than 31% over the next year? · Probs

BTC

Will Bitcoin fall more than 31% over the next year?

Consensus

19%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

6 forecastsCloses 19 Aug 2026, 16:23Resolves 5 Jul 2027, 16:23

The community sees this as very unlikely for Bitcoin at 19%, based on 6 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Bitcoin is down more than 31% 12 months out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 19%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 21d 4h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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