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Will SPDR Dow Jones ETF outperform the S&P 500 over the next 3 years? · Probs

SPDR Dow Jones ETF

DIA

Will SPDR Dow Jones ETF outperform the S&P 500 over the next 3 years?

Consensus

25%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

12 forecastsCloses 20 Aug 2026, 11:36Resolves 5 Jul 2029, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for SPDR Dow Jones ETF at 25%, based on 12 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if SPDR Dow Jones ETF's return beats the S&P 500's over the next 3 years.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 25%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 21d 23h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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