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Will iShares MSCI EAFE ETF fall more than 10% over the next 3 months? · Probs

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF

EFA

Will iShares MSCI EAFE ETF fall more than 10% over the next 3 months?

Consensus

17%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

5 forecastsCloses 11 Aug 2026, 09:09Resolves 19 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for iShares MSCI EAFE ETF at 17%, based on 5 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if iShares MSCI EAFE ETF is down more than 10% 90 days out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 17%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 12d 21h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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