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Will iShares MSCI EAFE ETF fall more than 21% over the next year? · Probs

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF

EFA

Will iShares MSCI EAFE ETF fall more than 21% over the next year?

Consensus

25%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

3 forecastsCloses 2 Sept 2026, 21:09Resolves 19 Jul 2027, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for iShares MSCI EAFE ETF at 25%, based on 3 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if iShares MSCI EAFE ETF is down more than 21% 12 months out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 25%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 35d 9h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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