Probs · Forecast in probabilities, not opinions.

Markets Rankings Guide Accuracy Get the app Premium About Feedback

Probs is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. We are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Community forecasts and projected prices are opinions and models, not guarantees. Do your own research and seek professional advice before making any financial decision. Price data from providers including Twelve Data, Finnhub, Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko; provided as-is with no warranty.

Terms of Service Privacy Policy

© 2026 Probs. All rights reserved.

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF

EFA

Will iShares MSCI EAFE ETF outperform the S&P 500 over the next month?

Consensus

52%Coin flip

Moderate agreement

8 forecastsCloses 30 Jul 2026, 02:22Resolves 21 Aug 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as close to a coin toss for iShares MSCI EAFE ETF at 52%, based on 8 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if iShares MSCI EAFE ETF's return beats the S&P 500's over the next 30 days.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 52%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 13h 40m · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Will iShares MSCI EAFE ETF outperform the S&P 500 over the next month? · Probs

Discussion

Share your read on this question — the best forecasters show their work.

See the whole efa discussion →