Probs · Forecast in probabilities, not opinions.

Markets Rankings Guide Accuracy Get the app Premium About Feedback

Probs is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. We are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Community forecasts and projected prices are opinions and models, not guarantees. Do your own research and seek professional advice before making any financial decision. Price data from providers including Twelve Data, Finnhub, Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko; provided as-is with no warranty.

Will Gold trade above $4500 at any point in the next 3 months? · Probs

Gold

GLD

Will Gold trade above $4500 at any point in the next 3 months?

Consensus

17%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

4 forecastsCloses 11 Aug 2026, 22:05Resolves 19 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for Gold at 17%, based on 4 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Gold closes at or above $4500 at any point in the next 3 months.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 17%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 13d 10h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

Share your read on this question — the best forecasters show their work.

See the whole gld discussion →