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NVS

Will Novartis fall more than 25% over the next year?

Consensus

16%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

8 forecastsCloses 2 Sept 2026, 21:09Resolves 19 Jul 2027, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for Novartis at 16%, based on 8 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Novartis is down more than 25% 12 months out versus its baseline price.

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How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 16%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 35d 9h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

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Will Novartis fall more than 25% over the next year? · Probs