Probs · Forecast in probabilities, not opinions.

Markets Rankings Guide Accuracy Get the app Premium About Feedback

Probs is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. We are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Community forecasts and projected prices are opinions and models, not guarantees. Do your own research and seek professional advice before making any financial decision. Price data from providers including Twelve Data, Finnhub, Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko; provided as-is with no warranty.

Will Optimism fall more than 74% over the next year? · Probs

Optimism

Will Optimism fall more than 74% over the next year?

Consensus

22%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

6 forecastsCloses 2 Sept 2026, 21:09Resolves 19 Jul 2027, 21:09

The community sees this as very unlikely for Optimism at 22%, based on 6 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Optimism is down more than 74% 12 months out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 22%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 35d 9h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

Share your read on this question — the best forecasters show their work.

See the whole op discussion →