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SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF fall more than 11% over the next 6 months?

Consensus

21%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

7 forecastsCloses 2 Sept 2026, 21:09Resolves 15 Jan 2027, 22:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for S&P 500 ETF at 21%, based on 7 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF is down more than 11% 180 days out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 21%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 35d 9h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Will S&P 500 ETF fall more than 11% over the next 6 months? · Probs

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