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Will S&P 500 ETF reach a new all-time high within the next year? · Probs

SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF reach a new all-time high within the next year?

Consensus

25%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

6 forecastsCloses 18 Aug 2026, 20:45Resolves 5 Jul 2027, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for S&P 500 ETF at 25%, based on 6 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF trades above its all-time high at any point in the next 12 months.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 25%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 20d 8h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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