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Will S&P 500 ETF trade above $800 at any point in the next 3 months? · Probs

SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF trade above $800 at any point in the next 3 months?

Consensus

24%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

4 forecastsCloses 11 Aug 2026, 22:05Resolves 19 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for S&P 500 ETF at 24%, based on 4 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF closes at or above $800 at any point in the next 3 months.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 24%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 13d 10h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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