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SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF gain more than 7% over the next 3 months?

Consensus

33%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

5 forecastsCloses 19 Aug 2026, 10:19Resolves 26 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as unlikely for S&P 500 ETF at 33%, based on 5 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF is up more than 7% 90 days out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 33%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 20d 22h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Will S&P 500 ETF gain more than 7% over the next 3 months? · Probs

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