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Will S&P 500 ETF outperform the Nasdaq 100 over the next 3 years? · Probs

SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF outperform the Nasdaq 100 over the next 3 years?

Consensus

50%Coin flip

Moderate agreement

11 forecastsCloses 20 Aug 2026, 11:36Resolves 5 Jul 2029, 21:00

The community sees this as close to a coin toss for S&P 500 ETF at 50%, based on 11 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF's return beats the Nasdaq 100's over the next 3 years.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 50%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 21d 23h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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