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Will S&P 500 ETF double within the next 2 years? · Probs

SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF double within the next 2 years?

Consensus

31%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

11 forecastsCloses 20 Aug 2026, 11:36Resolves 5 Jul 2028, 21:00

The community sees this as unlikely for S&P 500 ETF at 31%, based on 11 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF is up more than 100% (at least doubles) two years out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 31%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 21d 23h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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