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Will S&P 500 ETF outperform the Nasdaq 100 over the next month? · Probs

SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF outperform the Nasdaq 100 over the next month?

Consensus

40%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

6 forecastsCloses 30 Jul 2026, 02:22Resolves 21 Aug 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as unlikely for S&P 500 ETF at 40%, based on 6 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF's return beats the Nasdaq 100's over the next 30 days.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 40%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 14h 29m · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

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