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SPY

Will S&P 500 ETF fall more than 7% over the next 3 months?

Consensus

5%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

6 forecastsCloses 20 Aug 2026, 04:51Resolves 26 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for S&P 500 ETF at 5%, based on 6 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if S&P 500 ETF is down more than 7% 90 days out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 5%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 21d 16h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Will S&P 500 ETF fall more than 7% over the next 3 months? · Probs

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