Probs · Forecast in probabilities, not opinions.

Markets Rankings Guide Accuracy Get the app Premium About Feedback

Probs is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. We are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Community forecasts and projected prices are opinions and models, not guarantees. Do your own research and seek professional advice before making any financial decision. Price data from providers including Twelve Data, Finnhub, Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko; provided as-is with no warranty.

Will Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF fall more than 12% over the next 3 months? · Probs

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF

VWO

Will Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF fall more than 12% over the next 3 months?

Consensus

26%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

8 forecastsCloses 11 Aug 2026, 09:09Resolves 19 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as unlikely for Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF at 26%, based on 8 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is down more than 12% 90 days out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 26%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 12d 21h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

Share your read on this question — the best forecasters show their work.

See the whole vwo discussion →