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Will Energy Select Sector SPDR fall more than 14% over the next 3 months? · Probs

Energy Select Sector SPDR

XLE

Will Energy Select Sector SPDR fall more than 14% over the next 3 months?

Consensus

10%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

4 forecastsCloses 11 Aug 2026, 09:09Resolves 19 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for Energy Select Sector SPDR at 10%, based on 4 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Energy Select Sector SPDR is down more than 14% 90 days out versus its baseline price.

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How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 10%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 12d 20h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

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