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Will Financial Select Sector SPDR outperform the S&P 500 over the next month? · Probs

Financial Select Sector SPDR

XLF

Will Financial Select Sector SPDR outperform the S&P 500 over the next month?

Consensus

52%Coin flip

Moderate agreement

5 forecastsCloses 30 Jul 2026, 02:22Resolves 21 Aug 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as close to a coin toss for Financial Select Sector SPDR at 52%, based on 5 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Financial Select Sector SPDR's return beats the S&P 500's over the next 30 days.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 52%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 14h 23m · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

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