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Will Financial Select Sector SPDR fall more than 8% over the next 3 months? · Probs

Financial Select Sector SPDR

XLF

Will Financial Select Sector SPDR fall more than 8% over the next 3 months?

Consensus

13%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

4 forecastsCloses 11 Aug 2026, 09:09Resolves 19 Oct 2026, 21:00

The community sees this as very unlikely for Financial Select Sector SPDR at 13%, based on 4 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Financial Select Sector SPDR is down more than 8% 90 days out versus its baseline price.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 13%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 12d 21h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

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