Probs · Forecast in probabilities, not opinions.

Markets Rankings Guide Accuracy Get the app Premium About Feedback

Probs is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. We are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Community forecasts and projected prices are opinions and models, not guarantees. Do your own research and seek professional advice before making any financial decision. Price data from providers including Twelve Data, Finnhub, Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko; provided as-is with no warranty.

Will Health Care Select Sector SPDR outperform the S&P 500 over the next 3 years? · Probs

Health Care Select Sector SPDR

XLV

Will Health Care Select Sector SPDR outperform the S&P 500 over the next 3 years?

Consensus

44%Unlikely

Moderate agreement

11 forecastsCloses 20 Aug 2026, 11:36Resolves 5 Jul 2029, 21:00

The community sees this as close to a coin toss for Health Care Select Sector SPDR at 44%, based on 11 forecasts. Forecasters are in moderate agreement.

Resolves YES if Health Care Select Sector SPDR's return beats the S&P 500's over the next 3 years.

Make a forecast

How likely is YES?50%

Even — a toss-upLow conviction

The crowd says 44%. Your call is scored against it for your track record.

Closes in 21d 22h · a right call from here banks up to 75 pts — the earlier the call, the more it earns.

Reasoning (optional)

Discussion

Share your read on this question — the best forecasters show their work.

See the whole xlv discussion →