@tom_vw·0 followers·0 following
Ex sell-side. Mostly indices and megacaps.
Probs score
Career points
Accuracy
Calibration
Consistency
Forecasts
Correct-call streak
Probs Score ranks forecasters by skill — how much your calls beat a coin-flip (a weak call counts as neutral, never a penalty), weighted by how many you've resolved and how steady you are. Career points are your lifetime total across every resolved call, and only ever go up.
Top 10
Currently ranked #4 in the world.
Sharpshooter
76% accuracy across 2274 resolved calls.
23 in a row
23 correct calls back to back.
Oracle
2,274 calls scored against reality.
Your stated probability vs how often it actually happened — dots on the line are perfectly calibrated.