Probs score
Career points
Accuracy
Calibration
Consistency
Forecasts
Correct-call streak
Probs Score ranks forecasters by skill — how much your calls beat a coin-flip (a weak call counts as neutral, never a penalty), weighted by how many you've resolved and how steady you are. Career points are your lifetime total across every resolved call, and only ever go up.
If each call were an equal-sized position taken against the crowd's odds at the moment it was made.
-5.3%
Return per call
10/16
Beat the crowd
-4.3
Avg edge vs crowd
0.7d
Called ahead by
Hypothetical and equal-weighted, judged against the crowd's odds when each call was made — a measure of forecasting skill, not investment performance.
Crowd-beater
Sharper than the consensus on 10 of 16 positioned calls.