Probs score
Career points
Accuracy
Calibration
Consistency
Forecasts
Correct-call streak
Probs Score ranks forecasters by skill — how much your calls beat a coin-flip (a weak call counts as neutral, never a penalty), weighted by how many you've resolved and how steady you are. Career points are your lifetime total across every resolved call, and only ever go up.
If each call were an equal-sized position taken against the crowd's odds at the moment it was made.
+12%
Return per call
18/43
Beat the crowd
-5.9
Avg edge vs crowd
0.3d
Called ahead by
Hypothetical and equal-weighted, judged against the crowd's odds when each call was made — a measure of forecasting skill, not investment performance.
League champion
Won a weekly league — top forecaster for the week.
Top 10
Currently ranked #3 in the world.
Sharpshooter
73% accuracy across 43 resolved calls.
7 in a row
7 correct calls back to back.
Proven
43 calls scored against reality.
Your stated probability vs how often it actually happened — dots on the line are perfectly calibrated.